Number One

Mark your calendars:  The iPhone is coming to Verizon on January 11, 2011

Just last night, I was visiting with a close friend and lamenting the fact that it didn’t look like Apple was going to be releasing the iPhone for Verizon on January 11th, the most perfect day possible for such an announcement.  He was sitting by his computer, and happened to look at his browser, and said, “oh, wait… there’s news here on the CBS web site about a Verizon announcement next Tuesday.”  That was it!  It appears that no mention of this news was published (anywhere) until markets closed in New York on Friday; unusual for Apple who normally gives reporters at least a full weeks notice for such (premiere) press events.

I pulled open my laptop, and started searching through my Apple news bookmarks to read more details.  The press was already in a feeding frenzy!

• Wall Street Journal
• All Things Digital
• Engadget
• Electronista

There were so many reasons why Apple should pick this day, it should have been obvious to everyone in the tech press.  But as early as the start of CES in Vegas earlier this week, there was no rumor buzz.  Then, a glimmer of speculation started when Verizon announced that they would hold a press conference on Thursday (Jan 6) at CES.  But all they announced were some Android phones and 4G network rollouts.  That should have excited everyone, but it wasn’t the announcement that everyone was waiting for, so it didn’t generate the fanfare one might normally expect.

So, why should this have been obvious?

Number 1: Apple is bringing the number one phone to the number one US cell phone network.  On January 11th, 2011 at 11am.  Could the use of the digit “1” be any more obvious?!  This is a one-time-only marketing opportunity, and Apple couldn’t miss it.

Number 2: Apple has virtually stopped going to trade shows, from MacWorld to Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas (CES).  They are big enough to create their own media events, and they don’t mind up-staging other events.  The timing of an event like this just days after CES makes perfect sense by this measure.

Number 3: The tech press has been reporting this eventuality for months; detailing shipments of CDMA chipsets to Apple last fall and countless other rumors that the iPhone was coming to Verizon soon.  Some recent rumors suggested Valentines Day.

Number 4: The exclusive deal with AT&T couldn’t last forever.  Apple wasn’t going to wait until November 11th later this year to hit the ultimate 11/11/11 trifecta.  Instead, they are picking the “first” month of the year to be on the number one network with the number one phone.  It seems so obvious.

Number 5: Competition from Android is driving this as well.  Android is the best thing that has happened to the modern smartphone marketplace.  Feature comparisons exist everywhere, and both camps have their supporters and detractors.  As a result of the sheer volume of Android phones from multiple vendors continues to increase, and as consumers continue upgrading to smart phones, Apple will not have the “number one phone” forever even though they do now (see link for November 2010 charts and graphs).  That doesn’t mean the iPhone isn’t a great phone; rather it means that they will soon lose the marketing hyperbole that they can use this month.

Also keep in mind that the Verizon excitement (and related technology) is a mostly USA phenomenon only.  Most of the rest of the world uses the same GSM network technology used by AT&T, and that will drive the majority of iPhone sales. The CDMA technology used by Verizon in the USA is used in very few other countries, so the sales spike for Apple will be largely limited to US shipments.

How many Verizon iPhones will be sold?  Deutsche Bank Telecom Services analyst Brett Feldman estimates “that Verizon will add roughly 15M iPhones in 2011 with 6M cannibalized from AT&T.”

I guess the only surprise in this is that Verizon is making the announcement instead of Apple.  I’m guessing that this is a move by Apple to placate their original vendor, AT&T.

As for me, I’m probably sticking with AT&T.  The network is only going to get better once they lose 10-20% of their smart phone users to Verizon.  In 17 months with AT&T, I’ve only had two dropped calls.  And my local signal strength from AT&T exceeds what I had with Verizon before I switched to the iPhone in July 2009.  Unless Verizon offers unlimited data plans at much lower prices than AT&T and actually tries to heat up the cell phone marketplace by sparking rate competition or matching Sprint’s package price points, I’ll be waiting until the iPhone 5 comes out this summer to decide when and with whom I should upgrade.  My 3GS with no front-facing camera continues to work just fine for me!

iPad Launch Day

I made my way to an Apple Store on Saturday, and did not come home with an iPad.  And it wasn't because they didn't have them in stock.  Rather, when I got there at 3pm, they were displaying several "stacks" of them behind the Genius Bar.  And, I couldn't find an employee who would even discuss how many the store received, how many they sold, or even how many reserved iPads weren't picked up before the 3pm cutoff.  So, for all I knew, they had stacks of them in the back storage room.  Employees were easy to spot: they wore blue shirts advertising the iPad with this slogan, taken from Apple's web page: "A magical and revolutionary product at an unbelievable price."

By 3pm, the line was only a memory.  But the store was full of people using the iPad, and indeed, there were happy customers leaving with new iPads.  This store had 28 units on display for customers and potential customers to play with.  And, for the time I was there (over an hour), each of them was being fully used.  The staff was friendly and knowledgeable.

I used nearly every feature available on the iPad, from configuration settings to the pre-installed applications.  The Apple apps and the full screen apps demonstrate why the iPad is so much more than a glorified iPod Touch or iPhone.  Keynote looked amazing.  Pages was set up to let you move images around and watch the text flow.  It was just as fast as advertised.  Numbers will take some getting used to; I don't see it being used for big, hairy spreadsheets given the screen size.  But the presentation did look as nice as the iWork version.  Other full size apps I played with include the new MLB (baseball) app, which was really nice since games were "in play" during the afternoon as I was using it.  The eTrade app demonstrated how nice it is to have lots of data on the screen at once; vs. swapping between smaller iPhone screens.  Reuters News app also looked nice.

I didn't spend much time surfing YouTube or looking for Flash content, so the lack of Flash never got in my way.

I didn't have any reason to try to do two things at once, so the lack of multi-tasking never bothered me.  Of course, I did have the iPod play music in the background as I did other tasks.  It works just like the iPhone in this regard.

The model I used was a 16gig model.  In the stats page, it showed 14gig available total, and they had 5 gig of content installed.  This included the apps, 250+ songs, and 800+ photos.  The photo display was stunning.  Smooth and fast.  Just as advertised.

Two disappointments for me: 1)  the new New York Times app was not installed, so there was no way to interact with the fancy new program that Steve tempted us with back in January. 2) The (Google) Maps app couldn't connect to the server.  The Apple employee I spoke with acknowledged this, and even tried switching wi-fi networks for me.  It still didn't work.  However, the app had cached versions of the Eifel Tower, so I could pretend I was Steve during his demo and pan in and out on the satellite view.  It worked just as fast for me as it did for him.  But it would have been so much cooler to test it on my home address and see if it was still as snappy...  I'm grumpy, but not cynical, so I won't try to assign blame for the unavailable server.

Overall, it was a fun product to use.  It worked as advertised, nothing more and nothing less.  I think Apple delivered exactly what they promised.  And, by having over 2,000 new iPad apps ready to sell in the iTunes store, they've got enough content for new owners to begin enjoying their new purchase.  Why didn't I buy one?  Because I have an iPhone and a MacBook already, and there isn't yet a compelling app or collection of apps I can't live without on the iPad.  $500 for a book reader is too much for me.  $500 to have a fancy view of MLB games is too much for me.  I have the iWork family pack on the laptop and desktop already.  But, I envision a future when there are over a dozen nice apps I'd use over the course of a week, plus nation-wide newspapers, magazines, and catalogs available on the iPad.  Then the device will start to have some appeal for me.  It's at version one and less than a day old!  Give it time, I think it's going to be around for a while.  Not to mention what good competition in the marketplace will do to make it better.